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Season Preview 2019 – Part 5 09/08/2019

Posted by Matt Rowson in Thoughts about things.
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TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

INS: Tanguy Ndombele (Lyon, £53,800,000), Ryan Sessegnon (Fulham, £25,000,000), Jack Clarke (Leeds United, Undisclosed), Giovani lo Celso (Real Betis, Season Loan)

OUTS: Kieran Trippier (Atlético Madrid, £21,700,000), Vincent Janssen (Monterrey, Undisclosed), Josh Onomah (Fulham, Part Exchange), Fernando Llorente, Michel Vorm, Luke Amos (Queens Park Rangers, Season Loan), Cameron Carter-Vickers (Stoke City, Season Loan), Jack Clarke (Leeds United, Season Loan)

OUR EX-SPURS: Étienne Capoue, Heurelho Gomes

THEIR EX-ORNS: Nigel Gibbs (Head of Player Development U17-U23), John McDermott (Head of Academy), Danny Rose, Perry Suckling (Head of Academy Goalkeeping)

RECENT ENCOUNTERS: A hugely fun win at Vicarage Road, penalty shoot out defeat after a duff Kabasele red and a late equaliser in an “away” tie and a late collapse at Wembley.

REPORT ARCHIVE:

Season H A FAC LC OTH
2018-19 2-1
2017-18 1-1
2016-17 1-4
2015-16 1-2
2011-12 0-1
2008-09 1-2
1999-00 1-1 0-4
1998-99 2-5
1994-95 3-6 / 3-2
1982-83 1-0

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Lloris
Foyth       Alderweireld           Vertonghen        Rose
Winks          Ndombele
Alli                           Eriksen                          Son
Kane

VERDICT: This one should be straightforward.

It was entertaining to see the WSC predicted final table, based on the average predictions of 20 supporter correspondents, see Man United come out with a predicted final place of sixth.  Exactly sixth, 6.00.  Tempting to think that EVERYONE predicted sixth.

For me Spurs in third should be even more of a given.  Look at the squad… not as good as City, not the depth of Liverpool, but clearly the best of the rest without the wobbliness of United, the circumstance of Chelsea, the defence of Arsenal.

And yet.  If Spurs’ superiority owes so much to the man at the helm, then any suggestion of vulnerability there is an issue.  Pocchettino has been making grumpy sounding noises, there’s a schism in the support reflecting support for Daniel Levy vs support for the Manager (who tellingly suggested his title should revert to Head Coach).  The Argentine has overseen the move to the new stadium, he’s taken them to a Champions League final.  You have to wonder whether his stock can get much higher.

If the manager stays, third.  Surely.  If he doesn’t, all bets are off.

WEST HAM UNITED

INS: Sebastian Haller (Eintracht Frankfurt, £45,000,000), Pablo Fornals (Villarreal, £24,000,000), Albian Ajeti (Basel, £8,000,000), Gonçalo Cardoso (Sporting Lisbon, £2,700,000), David Martin (Millwall, Free), Roberto (Espanyol, Free)

OUTS: Marko Arnautović (Shanghai SIPG, £22,400,000), Sam Byram (Norwich City, £750,000), Marcus Browne (Middlesbrough, Undisclosed), Edmilson Fernandes (Mainz 05, Undisclosed), Pedro Obiang (Sassuolo, Undisclosed), Reece Oxford (Augsburg, Undisclosed), Lucas Pérez (Alavés, Undisclosed), Adrián (Liverpool, Free), Andy Carroll (Newcastle United, Free), Josh Cullen (Charlton Athletic, Season Loan), Toni Martínez (Famalicão, Free), Josh Pask (Coventry City, Free), Samir Nasri (Anderlecht, Free), Grady Diangana (West Brom, Season Loan), Jordan Hugill (Queens Park Rangers, Season Loan), Martin Samuelson (FK Haugesund, Six Month Loan), Nathan Trott (AFC Wimbledon, Season Loan)

OUR EX-HAMMERS: Mason Barrett, Hayden Mullins, Domingos Quina

THEIR EX-ORNS: Richard Collinge (Head of Medical)

RECENT ENCOUNTERS: A miserable, distracted defeat at the end of the season and a sparky win with Ben Foster in fine form at their place.

REPORT ARCHIVE:

Season H A FAC LC OTH
2017-18 2-0
2016-17 1-1 4-2
2015-16 2-0
2011-12 0-4 1-1
2008-09 1-0
2006-07 1-1
2004-05 1-2 2-3
2003-04 0-0 0-4
1999-00 1-2 0-1

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Fabiański
Fredericks       Diop        Balbuena          Masuaku
Rice           Noble

Antonio                       Fornals                      Anderson
Haller

VERDICT: There was a point last season, it may have been after the Wolves defeat, where you looked at the table and realised that seventh was gone.  And then you looked at it again and realised that with the Cup Final less than a week beyond the final game, losing to West Ham and dropping into the bottom half was suddenly very likely.

That pissed me off more than the Cup Final in some ways.  Not that it was West Ham particularly, but that our league position didn’t reward our season anything like appropriately.  There were a bunch of well-matched teams there but we had our noses in front and then… blame the Cup Final, blame Troy’s dismissal, whatever.  We didn’t deserve to finish bottom half.

And that final game repeats itself very quickly, on the August Bank Holiday.  In the interim the Hammers have lost Arnautović but signed Haller and Fornals and should be all sorts of fun going forward.  At the back it looks a bit iffier though…  Diop and Balbuena are big personalities but the full backs are flaky and despite the monstrous Rice that’s not a midfield that’s going to offer a whole lot of protection.  Add an injury to Fabiański and the loss of the established cover in Adrián and you could probably do without Man City visiting on the opening day.

West Ham will do just fine, and should match the sort of finish they managed last season.  As we demonstrated, a win here or there can make a big difference to final places in a congested, competitive area of the table.  But there’s nothing like the solidity to maintain a top six challenge.

WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

INS: Raúl Jiménez (Benfica, £30,000,000), Patrick Cutrone (Milan, £16,000,000), Leander Dendoncker (Anderlecht, £12,000,000), Renat Dadashov (Estoril, Undisclosed), Bruno Jordão (Lazio, Undisclosed), Pedro Neto (Lazio, Undisclosed), Jesús Vallejo (Real Madrid, Season Loan)

OUTS: Jose Dias (Famalicão, Undisclosed), Ethan Ebanks-Landell (Shrewsbury Town, Undisclosed), Pedro Gonçalves (Famalicão, Undisclosed), Kourtney Hause (Aston Villa, Undisclosed), Sherwin Seedorf (Motherwell, Undisclosed), Kevin Berkoe (Oxford United, Free), Aaron Hayden (Carlisle United, Free), Ryan Leak (Burgos, Free), Jack Ruddy (Ross County, Free), Donovan Wilson (Burgos, Free), Ben Goodliffe, Aaron Hayden, Carlos Heredia, Diego Lattie, Enzo Sauvage, Michal Zyro, Ivan Cavaleiro (Fulham, Season Loan), Helder Costa (Leeds United, Season Loan), Renat Dadashov (Paços de Ferreira, Season Loan), Niall Ennis (Doncaster Rovers, Season Loan), Bright Enobakhare (Cheltenham, Season Loan), Christian Herc (Viktoria Plzeň, Two Season Loan), Cameron John (Doncaster Rovers, Season Loan), Will Norris (Ipswich Town, Season Loan), Connor Ronan (Dunajská Streda, Season Loan), Ryan Giles (Shrewsbury Town, Season Loan), Alexander Molberg (Hobro IK, End of Loan)

OUR EX-WOLVES: None

THEIR EX-ORNS: None

RECENT ENCOUNTERS: A brutally clinical win at Molineux and an aggravating defeat at home in which we really missed Troy sandwiched an extraordinary cup semi final in which the skipper showed his worth.

REPORT ARCHIVE:

Season H A FAC LC OTH
2018-19 1-2 3-2
2014-15 0-1
2012-13 2-1
2008-09 2-3
2007-08 3-0 1-4
2005-06 3-1 1-1 2-1
2004-05 1-1 0-0
2002-03 1-1 0-0
2001-02 1-1 0-1
2000-01 3-2 2-2
1998-99 0-2 0-0
1995-96 0-3

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Patricio
Boly         Coady       Bennett
Dendoncker
Doherty       Neves         Moutinho       Jonny
Jota          Jimenez

VERDICT: A stunning first season back in the top flight for Wolves who comprehensively lived up to their pre-season billing and with whom we had three stonking games.

The problem is self-evident however (writing on Wednesday evening, before transfer deadline day).  This is a small squad;  small by design, Nuno Espirito Santo reportedly likes it that way and you can’t argue with the results.  However Wolves had a good run with injuries last year, and there are any number of points in that starting eleven that look vulnerable to a deputy standing in.  Then there’s the Europa League effect;  we might have struggled in a similar situation, but our squad is much deeper than Wolves’, who have a couple of kids coming through but a weak bench, let alone further cover, as was painfully evident during the Cup Semi.  A couple of stronger members of that squad, Costa and Cavaleiro, have disappeared on loan and if the few genuinely new faces coming in are trade-ups it’s still a high risk strategy to run with such a small squad.

Wolves’ messageboards are far less gung-ho than the excitable portents of a challenge to the top six elsewhere, predicting a more sensible 8th-10th in consensus.  This seems perfectly reasonable. But it will be interesting to see what happens if and when things start going against Santo, always a big test of a manager.

Much has been made of the fact that Wolves did well against the big six but struggled, relatively, against weaker sides.   “If they can only start picking up points against the rest…” starts the argument, as if maintaining the more impressive side of the anomaly is a given, or more straightforward.  Wolves have a great starting eleven, but given the lack of recruitment and the Europa League thing it’s inconceivable that they’ll finish as high as seventh.  Far too much quality to struggle… but quite how much lower than seventh will be interesting.

WATFORD

INS: Craig Dawson (West Bromwich Albion, £5,500,000), Tom Dele-Bashiru (Manchester City, £220,000 compensation), Kane Crichlow (AFC Wimbledon, Undisclosed), Ismaïla Sarr (Rennes, Undisclosed), Sam Dalby (Leeds United, Undisclosed), Jamal Balogun (Reading, Free), Mason Barrett (West Ham, Free), Cameron Green (Reading, Free), Joseph Hungbo (Crystal Palace, Free), Bayli Spencer-Adams (Arsenal, Free), Danny Welbeck (Arsenal, Free), Callum Whelan (Manchester United, Free), Harvey White (QPR, Free), Henry Wise (Derby County, Free)

OUTS: Dodi Lukebakio (Hertha BSC, £17,700,000), Obbi Oularé (Standard Liège, £2,700,000), Miguel Britos, Tommie Hoban, Pervis Estupiñan (Osasuna, Two Season Loan), Michael Folivi (AFC Wimbledon, Season Loan), Alex Jakubiak (Gillingham, Season Loan), Marc Navarro (Leganés, Season Loan), Jerome Sinclair (VVV-Venlo, Season Loan), Ben Wilmot (Swansea City, Season Loan)

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Foster
Femenía          Cathcart          Dawson            Holebas
Capoue      Doucouré
Deulofeu                   Hughes                           Sarr
Deeney

VERDICT: Having scoured the Premier League’s messageboards in researching these pieces it’s unavoidable that people tend to be overly positive about their own team.  There are exceptions: Wolves, as above, and Palace both significant in their realism.  Nonetheless, the tendency is to overlook the achievement of whatever it was you managed last year and to presume that things will get a bit better, that with a little more luck, with a few more decisions going your way, you’ll push on.  Or that, for example, Wolves’ achievement is a reasonable benchmark for any promoted club (you know who you are…).

So there’s a need for discipline in making predictions.  In evaluating where we are.  A need to resist those rose-tinted spectacles, for calm logic not borne of fan-boy summer overexuberance indifferent to any team building that rivals have managed.  Not for us such childishness, such tedious excitability.

We’re going to be bloody brilliant.

That’s it.  That’s a cold-blooded no-bullshit assessment, whichever way you look at it.  This is a side that finished eleventh, as comfortably mid-table as possible.  A cup final away from a top half finish, in contention for Europe of all things.  A decent season.

And so we strengthen.  We strengthen, first of all, with a nasty bastard in defence.  Craig Dawson has been an awkward, physical bully every time we’ve faced him but now he’s our nasty bastard.   Brilliant.

Tom Dele-Bashiru.  Not to be overlooked, not to be lost in the rather baffling crowd of U23s brought in having been released by their clubs.  This is a lad who Man City wanted to retain.  Who’s navigated some senior game time at City in a competitive environment.  Who we are paying City compensation for, which in some ways is more satisfying than getting him for nothing.  Henceforth, a “reverse Sancho”.  And deliberately, explicitly, part of the first team squad.

Then Danny Welbeck.  Wowsers.  Left field signing, injuries yes yes.  But, you know.  Danny Welbeck.  Quick, clever, mobile, honest.  Will run himself into the ground.  England striker, proper England striker. Not a Jay Bothroyd or a Fraizer Campbell, got a free England cap by collecting vouchers of boxes of Coco Pops but a bona fide England striker.  Playing for us. On a free.  And yes, it does matter that he’s a good bloke.

And then the big one.  Ismaïla Sarr. Trailed for bloody ages, one of three candidates that we might sign but then he lights up AFCON and surely the chance has gone.  And then Trézéguet signs for Villa, Saint-Maximin signs for Newcastle and Leicester have sold Maguire so they’re minted and if not then surely Palace will sign him if they sell Zaha to Everton for a shedload or Everton will sign him if they don’t.  Can you imagine if that had happened?  How Saturday would be… yes, great, “football, hurray”. But… you know.  But then we sign him and it’s confirmed, and it’s awesome because Gino and Scott don’t spend £30m on anyone and you’re punching the air grinning your face off and telling people who couldn’t be less interested and stare at you like you’re some kind of idiot and you still don’t care because this is just brilliant.

We didn’t lose anyone either by the way.  Not the wonderful Ben Foster. Not the magnificently understated Craig Cathcart.  Not the inhuman Étienne Capoue, the balletic Chalobah, the flamboyant Pereyra, the irrepressible Deulofeu, the talismanic Deeney.  Not the monstrous Abdoulaye Doucouré, who might have left had we gotten a decent offer from a club that was a proper step up but we didn’t.  (Oh do shut up Everton.  Tedious.)

So you look at the squad and the club and you remember where we were and you look at where we are and you desperately hope that the frantic excitement won’t be diffused by the absence of Z-Cars on Saturday but in any case you can’t help but be delighted.

It’s football.  It’s brilliant.  We’re brilliant.

Welcome back.

Bring it on.

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Comments»

1. Harefield Hornet - 09/08/2019

Brilliant as always! The section on the Horns should be pinned to the inside of the dressing room door!!!

2. Jeff Lloyd - 09/08/2019

There’s just one line in your assessment of our chances that makes me unfathomably sad: ‘the absence of Z-Cars’. I know, it’s a 55 year old TV theme but it’s meant a huge amount to me, and I’m guessing many others, over the years and when I hear it I’m genuinely uplifted. Elton could be in my front room singing I’m Still Standing and much as I’d love him for doing that it will NEVER be the same.

Matt Rowson - 09/08/2019

Agree entirely. Thought twice about including the comment as it rather spoils the mood. But the lack of Z-Cars DOES spoil the mood.

3. andi_t - 09/08/2019

Excited to get back to it for the Brighton game… Also hoping for Z-Cars – the last thing we need is a collective groan from the crowd 5 mins before kick off when there should be a huge cheer!

Matt Rowson - 09/08/2019

spot on

4. BH - 09/08/2019

Against Real Sociedad last Saturday, the team ran out to “I’m Still Standing.” Rightly or wrongly, the song is being true to it’s title. We’ll know more in 24 hours time about the season ahead – on more than one front. Like everyone else, I cant wait!

5. Sophie - 10/08/2019

I was excited before, Matt. Now I’m doubly so! Thank you. I was grinning like a disbelieving loon in the office upon Welbeck’s signature, telling anyone with a passing interest in football. Bring on this afternoon!

Matt Rowson - 10/08/2019

😊


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