Watford 1 Luton Town 0 (26/09/2020) 26/09/2020

1-  So there’s a guy who lives in my village.  We won’t name him, let’s call him “George”.  I know him well enough to stop and chat – about football, typically, which may be no surprise.

I ran into him a couple of weeks ago and he wasn’t wasting time with niceties.  “I watched your lot on the telly”, he started, without a “hello”.  “What are they all doing kneeling before the kick-off?”.

It went downhill from there.  From “When I saw your guy holding his fist in the air I turned it off” via “That sort of thing’s why I don’t watch much football any more” to “Why they’re allowed to do that but they can’t put a poppy on a shirt I don’t know” before I was afforded a word.  I briefly suggested that I didn’t share his point of view and took his leave.

The point is, there are wankers.  They’re out there, hiding in plain sight. This probably won’t be news to many of you.  Some of them will support Luton.  Some will support Watford.  George supports neither, as it goes. With particular relevance to this week, the fact that it was deemed necessary to bring the match forward to lunchtime, to box up the GT statue, can only have been based on police advice – you don’t put yourself to that sort of trouble on a whim, because you’re at a loose end.  At the time of writing it seems that nothing “went off”.  That doesn’t make these decisions ill-advised.

There are wankers.  Empty vessels make the most noise.  Yes, it’s pathetic, but there are wankers.  That’s as interesting as it gets.

2- Meanwhile, the first local derby for however long.  I found it significant, in the build up, to reflect that there aren’t anti-Luton songs any more.  I don’t remember the last time “Wings of a Sparrow” or any of the less witty, more banal, “insert-name-of-your-local-rivals-here” chants got an airing.  As you’ll have gathered, I don’t really miss it.

Tied in with that is the fact that local derbies matter more when your teams are competitive rivals (which we haven’t been for a while) and particularly when both teams are rubbish (ditto, at least in our case). Add the fact that anyone under the age of 30 won’t remember the two sides being frequent opponents and the lack of it being quite such a thing any more is easier to understand.

Which isn’t to say that the game was anything other than hugely significant.  In the last week I’ve been reminded of that feeling you used to get, the excitement mixed with apprehension that it was them and we were probably going to lose because that’s what happened.  I hadn’t felt that for more than twenty years, but it was a staple twice-a-season thing once upon a time.

This lasted until the team news, which was a bit like the team news before the Palace quarter final eighteen months ago when Zaha’s absence was confirmed.  The anxiety washed away in blinking, grinning joy.  Suddenly there was no peril, just excitement.  Suddenly you knew we were going to win, like on that day in October 1997.  Ismaïla Sarr may still leave over the next few weeks, but that’s no reason not to enjoy whatever minutes we get.  At this level, he’s a cheat code.

3- Characteristic of too many of our League performances since the lockdown has been a poor start, to the extent that it’s been something worth noting in every game in its own right.  There’s no point taking the gamble of starting Sarr and not beginning on the front foot though, and whilst the opening fifteen minutes of a derby, any derby, is traditionally frantic chest-beating and “Hold on, did anyone bring a ball?” harum scarum, the lack of a crowd and therefore absence of noisy angst from the stands allowed a very entertaining game of football to break out.

In terms of vibe our performance was similar to that in the second half at Hillsborough…  verve, energy and movement lacking only an end product.  With Sarr in the mix however there’s all manner of extra potency;  his pace and threat alongside João Pedro’s awareness and deceptive strength seems almost unfair in the Championship.

For ten or fifteen minutes it was still a little incomplete.  We looked nice and tidy until the final third, but couldn’t get any controlled possession at the business end of the pitch, Sema coming closest by playing through Cleverley with a smart first touch.

But we were soon producing our most fluid football of the season, and whilst the squad remains up in the air there are all sorts of things to be excited about.  Sarr skating at opponents, combining deft touches with brutal physicality and ferocious speed.  No signs of rust whatsoever.  Ngakia uncontainable once again, always available on the overlap and putting in quality with either foot, a horrible player to have to mark.  Tom Cleverley, released from his sitting role by James Garner’s inclusion, in the more advanced ferreting position which has always seen his best stuff.  João Pedro, as above surprisingly resilient, tougher than his spindly frame suggests ought to be possible.  He received plenty of attention from his markers but stood up to all of it – there was a tendency to go looking for a foul but referee John Brooks did a decent job of letting the game run and not blowing up when he didn’t have to.

So with Ngakia and Sarr rampant, it was a bit of a surprise that the goal came from an attack down the left, Ken Sema once again demonstrating that he doesn’t need any space at all to get a cross in and João Pedro adjusting quickly to a deflection to prod home. His first goal in England on his nineteenth birthday.  Not the last.

4- Whilst we were on top it would be wrong to paint this as a completely one-sided contest. The visitors were the strongest side we’ve faced thus far, defended well for the most part, desperately on occasions but doggedly enough to stay in it and always looked dangerous on the break where their attacks were neat and tidy.  Harry Cornick was the biggest threat in the first half, too often finding space down the right.  His ball across was smacked off the underside of the bar by Collins with Foster doing well to come out and force the Luton striker to lift the ball.  That goes in it’s a different game;  as it was we broke and scored, and never really looked back.

At half time of that game at Kenilworth Road in October 1997 I met my now co-editor (as well as the estimable Nick Grundy) for the first time.  This time, things being what they are, I had to settle for grabbing a sandwich.

5- The visitors attempted to seize the initiative at the start of the second half, but this barely lasted beyond an opening corner.  Thereafter it was the Hornets with the greater threat, even if the concern remains that one-nil doesn’t reflect our superiority, that for all the flicks and tricks and movement we’re making scoring goals harder than it should be.  There are no stock goals.

That will come though.  Indeed at the rate at which the kids – and the team as a whole – are improving, that will come very soon.  This one should have been more… from one of a number of excellent James Garner corners Chalobah glanced a header that needed slightly more contact and went wide.  Cleverley fed João Pedro whose flick released Garner, his drive was saved and the Brazilian’s snapshot on the rebound went wide.  Tunnicliffe was sloppy in possession, Sarr put the burners on and Pearson was forced to concede the first booking of the game (in the 75th minute of all things).

By that point Chalobah – excellent and forceful for an hour – had gone off to be replaced by Tom Dele-Bashiru, a less conspicuous addition to the “available” roster.  Briefly it looked as if Chalobah’s physicality might be missed again as we entrusted the back of the midfield to the 21 year-old Nigerian and his 19 year-old Scouse partner in crime, but any concerns were misplaced.  Dele-Bashiru has impressed in fits and bursts with the few chances he’s had since his arrival a year ago, but this was for me his most convincing half-hour in a Watford shirt…  composed under pressure, stingy with possession, direct and purposeful when Luton really wanted to be allowed to have the ball a bit more than they were.  If Dele-Bashiru was bypassed, Garner too proved to be made of much tougher stuff than you’d credit, hurling himself at loose balls, holding off much bigger opponents, and again being mean and rapid with possession.

There wasn’t much of a kitchen sink, much as an equaliser and a distinct change of mood wasn’t entirely off the cards.  Instead the Hornets should again have extended their lead, João Pedro and Sarr combining on the left to allow Dele-Bashiru a shot which Sluga did well to save.  To round off the show, Troy came on like a pantomime dame, barely featured in the play but provided a comedy battering of Luton’s frustrated left back who had made the mistake of taking out his anger on Ngakia.  A “Gifton at the corner flag” moment.  We finished the game well on top, and if Luton look unlikely to be facing a relegation battle this season they were outplayed and outclassed here.  Yes, it’s nice to write that.

6- As suggested during the week, a result in this one makes all the difference to your perspective but the performance on top of that gives real grounds for optimism.  “Building from the back” is hardly a radical strategy, but it’s significant that we’ve conceded (generously) four decent chances across our first three League games.  We won’t go far wrong if that continues;  Cathcart, Kabasele and Wilmot looked very solid indeed and if Troost-Ekong’s signing is as imminent as Twitter seems to believe we seem well catered for here.  Our attacking play sparkled at times today, and whilst the pieces are still sliding in and out of view we have plenty of options – and of course if we do hold on to Sarr, even until January, an outrageous talent by the standards of the Premier League let alone the Championship.

And, a footnote, we beat our local rivals, in the League, here, for the first time since 1987.  It should remain a footnote.  Should beating Luton become one of the more significant details of this season then this team will not have fulfilled its dizzying potential.

Yooorns.

Foster 4, Cathcart 5, Kabasele 4, Wilmot 4, *Ngakia 5*, Garner 5, Chalobah 4, Sema 5, Cleverley 5, Sarr 4, João Pedro 5
Subs: Dele-Bashiru (for Chalobah, 63) 4, Deeney (for João Pedro, 88) NA, Quina (for Sarr, 90) NA, Dawson, Femenía, Murray, Bachmann

Sheffield Wednesday 0 Watford 0 (19/09/2020) 20/09/2020

1- If, as has often been observed, and with relevance to the times when travelling to games was possible at all, you only went for the football you’d have a pretty miserable time of it.  There’s other stuff.  Lots of stuff.  Particularly for away games like this one.  The anticipation for one thing…  and, yes, I look forward to the games anyway but it’s not the same as the build up to a trip across the country.  There’s getting up early in the morning to facilitate such a trip, not remotely the same as getting up for work even if it boils down to essentially the same thing.  The sense of mission as you start your journey.  The Ginsters break on the motorway.  The conversation en route.  The visit to a local hostelry before the game, the burger or chips from a van on the way to the ground.  The anticipation as the ground fills up… and then the celebration or rumination and swearing at roadworks and 606 callers as you head back again.

We don’t get that right now, quite obviously.  Our experience is pared down to the focal point without any of the accompanying kerfuffle, and even then it’s on a screen and not in a stadium, with limited company rather than thousands of like-minded individuals.

Not the same, obviously.  Some have argued that football shouldn’t be played under these circumstances, “football without fans is nothing” and so forth. Leaving aside the likelihood that football without football won’t be retrievably football for very long…  I’d suggest that if said folk are lucky enough to have lives that are well-rounded and full enough not to have been compromised, butchered, restricted by circumstances such that they can take this version of football or leave it at the moment then good for them, but wish they didn’t feel that they had to deprive the rest of us of a bit of something that’s a bit like normal if you don’t stare too hard.  Cheers.

2- Given the tantalising talk of Ismaïla Sarr and Luis Suárez maybe coming into consideration and in the light of Liverpool seemingly filling their Sarr-shaped hole with Diogo Jota I won’t have been the only one the have been slightly disappointed by a line-up which saw one change, Glenn Murray effectively replacing Kiko Femenía with Ken Sema dropping to wing-back.  We were facing Wednesday at perhaps a slightly unfortunate time… a squad that has lost a large number of players over the summer will feel the pinch of numbers at some point but having recorded an impressive win in Cardiff will have a bit of tunnel vision in chasing down that twelve point deficit.

The start of the game was scruffy in the extreme.  We started slowly, and as at Oxford struggled to get much of a foothold for the first half.  The home side were pressing aggressively and we struggled for controlled possession all over the pitch.  For half an hour we scarcely ventured out of our own half, although Wednesday rarely looked like capitalising on their territorial advantage.  Their closest calls came from two generously awarded free kicks each taken by Izzy Brown on the edge of the box.  First Dominic Iorfa and then Tom Lees failed to take advantage of a free header in the box – Ken Sema, it appeared, the culprit on each occasion.   On another occasion Josh Windass went down in the area – described on comms as having anticipated a challenge, not found it and gone down because he didn’t know what else to do.  As an aside, I try to avoid other people’s opinions as far as is reasonable before writing this stuff – if there’s any value in these reports it’s not in reproducing second-hand verdict – but in the case of the Yorkshire Post’s hilarious “blatant penalty” I’ll make an exception.  Other than this however we again managed to navigate a period of inferiority without looking like being punished for it.

3- And having gotten a foothold towards the end of the first half we started to push on in the second.  Glenn Murray had a combative but largely ineffective hour or so with João Pedro alongside him starved of the ball, a problem since the Brazilian’s quick feet and nimbleness seemed as likely a way of navigating Wednesday’s press as any other option that we had.  With the introduction of Stipe Perica that balance of power shifted more absolutely and irretrievably;  the Croat succeeded in holding the ball up where Murray had been less effective, and suddely João Pedro was sparkling alongside him.

As we picked up steam the home side began to look ragged, and were relying increasingly on the sort of last ditch tackle that in-control defending ought to render unnecessary.  That Wednesday weren’t in control reflected our growing confidence more than any ineptitude in their part.  We were sparking into life with increasing frequency as the games progressed – it’s wasn’t enough, but it was something.  A breathlessly deft move saw four or five players combine, a blink-and-you-miss-it rattling attack that concluded with João Pedro playing a ridiculously deft flick into Chalobah who lifted a ball to the unmarked Perica.  Slightly ahead of the ball, Perica got the elevation to head downwards but straight at the keeper.  Another quick exchange, again involving Perica, saw Quina brought down on the edge of the area, Sema thumping the free kick over.  João Pedro juggled wide on the left to release Cleverley who put his shot too close to Dawson as defenders closed in.  Sema crossed from the left, Kabasele fired narrowly over.  Sema down the left again broke into the area with some clever footwork only to be denied by Rhodes. We ended the game well in the ascendancy, but over the piece while we looked solid enough and could have won the game we didn’t quite do enough in the final third to feel hard done-by with a point.

5- So what have we learned?  Hardly news given Ivić’s reported stylistic preferences but we look an awful lot better at stopping the other lot than scoring ourselves.  But for our marking at set pieces we looked pretty impenetrable today, as you’d hope from that extremely proficient back three with Cleverley and Chalobah sitting in front of them.  Chalobah, as an aside, is becoming a candidate for that all-but-forgotten mantle of boo-boy, a role largely unoccupied for a decade or so but was excellent today, strong defending and effective supporting attacks.  Better.  All that’s stopping him dominating football games at this level is a need for a bit more assertiveness.

Meanwhile wing-backs are a fine thing in general but particularly when one of them is Jeremy Ngakia, someone who only operates at full speed and puts in a beast of a cross.  On the other side, Kenzema remains a force for good and whilst it’s still not clear exactly where he fits someone who can whip in a cross like that with his left foot given no space to do it is always going to have a role if Stipe Perica is waiting in the centre.

This issues are further forward, where the periods of slower passing followed by lightning quick interchange to penetrate seem to demand Pedro’s ongoing inclusion.  Perica looks tidy and convincing. Quina was more effective today, Murray has a role but overall it’s not potent enough, not yet.

On the plus side, Deeney, Deulofeu, Welbeck and Sarr are waiting in the wings.  Each is likely to leave, but perhaps it’s unlikely that all four will, Sarr the name we’re watching as the clock ticks down.  Any one of them would render our forward line vastly more potent.  Then there’s the less familiar Suárez and the much maligned but still vital threat of Gray.

We’re not in a bad place, it’s coming together and we’re picking up results as we go.  Work in progress.

Yooorns.

Foster 3, Cathcart 3, *Kabasele 4*, Wilmot 3, Ngakia 4, Sema 3, Cleverley 3, Chalobah 4, Quina 3, João Pedro 3, Murray 2
Subs: Perica (for Murray, 58) 3, Garner (for Quina, 73) 3, Pussetto (for João Pedro, 88) NA, Sierralta, Dawson, Sinclair, Bachmann

Oxford United 1 Watford 1 (0-3 on pens) (15/09/2020) 16/09/2020

1- I’m starting thunks at 22:08.  This is not going to be in-depth analysis…

2- So the thing is, the point at which I stop dwelling upon how weird it is and how different it is and how, you know, we wish things were the way they ought to be is the point at which the current state of affairs becomes normalised.  On the other hand, repeating these themes may become a little dull.  It’s a fine line, I tell you…

Pausing only briefly, then, to wonder what manner of Hornet lives in a Hive, Live or otherwise, it’s worth noting the pretty stunning job that the club have done of pulling this together.  No it’s not perfect and yes it helps to have terrific commentators and presenters on hand, not to mention the excellent Tommy Mooney…. and yes of course we’d rather be watching it in an actual stadium (or even a tree…great work lads…)

But to turn around an effort like this, even if not from a standing start, over a six week break or so is tremendous.  However inadequate watching a stream is vs, you know, actually being there not watching it would be far worse. On researching the season preview it was impossible to miss that the vast majority of Championship messageboards contain a thread entitled “iFollow” containing the same complaints about the standard provider that many clubs employ rather than doing it in house.  We’re not badly off I don’t think.

3- Some might question the wisdom of forking out a tenner for a stream to watch a single-camera view of the early stages of the League Cup.  Those same people would probably leave early at the end of a 6-0 pasting, or opt against long drives across the country to watch irrelevant end of season dead-rubbers in the rain.  This is a fundamental part of the process.  To skip it would be like skipping puberty.

Aside from which, those who didn’t fork out missed the spectacle of both sides apparently materialising onto an erstwhile empty pitch during Jon Marks’ intro, as if beamed down from the Starship Enterprise.  The Hornets were in the Sevilla-like all-white-with-red-trim away kit for the first time due to Oxford’s yellow and (dark) blue colours, which confused my instinctive desire to propel the yellows forward for the first half hour or so.  The side featured a predictable mix of youngsters, newbies and fringe players, in as much as these definitions mean a lot at the moment.

And we started OK.  Jerome Sinclair’s bullishness down the right set up a chance for Perica, his neat touch repelled by Oxford keeper Jack Stevens. Shortly afterwards a bomb of a cross from Toby Stevenson on the left, signed earlier in the day having been released from Charlton and perhaps with half an eye on Masina’s injury, again found Perica, who got slightly underneath it and crashed a header off the top of the bar.

This was a recurring pattern with Perica, incredibly tall without being ungainly but perhaps less of a bully than you’d like him to be.  Playing as we’re playing the width is generally coming from the wing backs and therefore the crosses often come from deeper.  Which isn’t easy for a target man, let alone one who’s not played competitively for months.

4- Defensively we looked wobbly, which was hardly surprising with three debutants and the other three of the back six boasting ten starts for the ‘orns between them before tonight.  Oxford, fielding a less-than-full-strength side themselves, were a good mix of tough and tidy, but there was all sorts wrong with their goal from our point of view… Sierralta, who had a shaky first half, Phillips and Chalobah could all have done better but Rob Hall surged onto his chance and thumped past Bachmann from range.

At which point we fell apart.  We had become a little apathetic anyway… standing off Oxford, not chasing down but without the resilience to allow the home side to run themselves into the ground.  Such a strategy is far less credible when you fall behind and we struggled for a foothold…  Quina continued his rather desperate flailing from Friday, Perica failed to hold the ball up and defensively we were a bit of a shambles.  Oxford went for the kill and weren’t very far at all from getting it, denied on one occasion by the post, on others by unkind bounces and more than once by the custodian, but we’ll get to him.

5- The half-time switch of Sema for Chalobah may have been pre-planned, but bringing Kabasele in for the Dutch youngster Derek Agyakwa was emergency surgery.  Agyakwa was no more culpable than anyone else in that first half and had put in one stout challenge to stem an early attack, but we needed someone in there who knew what they were doing and whilst acknowledging that Oxford already had the lead and that we didn’t exactly deny them any opportunities in the second half the Belgian’s impact was nonetheless pretty immediate and we looked an awful lot more solid.

And aggressive, thank heavens.  A game and a half in you’re wondering how we ever coped without Ken Sema, whose broad hunched shoulders are very un-wingery but yet who looks a pretty vital cog in this season’s squad.  Dom Quina got hold of the ball a bit and started to exert some control.  We pushed back on Oxford and Stevenson provided another superb arcing cross.  João Pedro came off the bench and is half-a-second here and a metre-or-so there away from being completely brilliant.  We looked better.  Credible.

But when Marc Navarro pulled first a shirt and then a hamstring in trying to snuff an Oxford attack it really did look like the jig was up.  Instead we seemed to get stronger… Sierralta became a very lanky but reasonably effective right-winger.  João Pedro sent an impossible pass through that didn’t quite find it’s target.  The biggest criticism was…  a lack of goal threat, despite Perica’s very obvious prominence and threat in the air.  You kinda feel that will come…  he got his head to everything.

And in the end, that’s how the goal arrived, another good ball from Stevenson and this time Perica’s cuhsioning it down at the far post, João Pedro should probably score himself but scuffs his shot to Sema who tucks home in the last minute of the 90.

6- And the rest is all about Daniel Bachmann.  He was already Watford’s man of the match before the penalty shoot-out, a number of saves ranging from an instinctive block with the legs to athletic stretched blocks to a quite impossible save to deny Hall a fine headed goal.

But the penalty shoot-out was ridiculous.  You hope we’ve not spent our perfect penalty shoot-out at too inauspicious a time but it was a perfect penalty shoot-out.  That vibe, that sense you get of which way it’s going to go as the first spot kick is lined up was screaming in his favour before the first kick after the game he’d had.  He made three saves, two to his right and one to his left, meaning that after Kenzema and Quina had converted confidently Stipe Perica was able to slide us into the third round and a trip to Newport.  Bachmann, undisputedly, the hero of the hour.  If there were any question regarding his ability to step into Heurelho Gomes’ shoes (and the rather desperate, unbecoming conduct of Robin Olsen’s agent notwithstanding) that question remains no longer.

As for the bigger piece…  after the first couple of games, if this were the end point you probably wouldn’t be banking on promotion.  But this isn’t the endpoint, or anything close to it.  We’re fumbling our way towards mid-October by which point, one way or another, we are likely to be significantly stronger and picking up results along the way.

So far so good.

Yooorns.

*Bachmann 5*, Navarro 2, Stevenson 3, Sierralta 3, Agyakwa 2, Wilmot 3, Chalobah 3, Phillips 3, Quina 3, Sinclair 3, Perica 3
Subs: Sema (for Chalobah, 45) 3, Kabasele (for Agyakwa, 45) 3, João Pedro (for Sinclair, 60) 3, Pussetto, Ngakia, Murray, Parkes

Season Preview 2020 – Part 6 11/09/2020

STOKE CITY

INS: James Chester (Aston Villa, Free); Steven Fletcher (Sheffield Wednesday, Free); Morgan Fox (Sheffield Wednesday, Free); John Obi Mikel (Unattached)

OUTS: Mame Biram Diouf (Hatyaspor, Free); Adam Federici (Macarthur, Free); Stephen Ward (Ipswich Town, Free); Josef Bursik (Doncaster Rovers, Season Loan); Lasse Sørensen (Franchise FC, Season Loan); Ryan Woods (Millwall, Season Loan)

OUR EX-POTTERS: Daniel Bachmann

THEIR EX-ORNS: Billy McKinlay (Assistant Manager)

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Davies
Smith             Chester              Batth              Fox
Mikel                   Clucas
Campbell            Powell                McClean
Vokes

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: We’ll get on to our lot further down.  But the danger in overestimating the difference between the bottom of the top flight and the Championship is most aptly demonstrated by the Potters.  When they went down two years ago I won’t have been the only one expecting a strong challenge the following season.  Potters fans closer to the day-to-day of the squad might scoff… but this looked like a squad retaining a lot of quality more than capable of pushing for a swift return.  It didn’t prove so, and that’s perhaps a warning against our own overconfidence.

City have finished 16th and 15th in their two seasons in the Championship, but don’t be fooled.  I’m putting together these pieces in the absence of much actual insight of my own by pillaging the messageboards of the clubs concerned, and “watch out for Stoke” has been a recurring theme.  In Michael O’Neill City have a manager who is pulling things together, and the squad looks ridiculously experienced and deep.   Indeed it’s a very very large squad with a huge number of experienced players not in the line-up above due to injury, or wanting outness… or sheer competition.  Ryan Shawcross and Joe Allen fall into the former category, but both will be in contention soon.  Benik Afobe, Peter Etebo, Tom Ince and Kevin Wimmer are amongst those who haven’t quite clicked.  But the line-up above also misses Jack Butland, James McClean, Bruno Martins Indi, Lee Gregory…  in particular with five attacking players in Vokes, Gregory, Afobe, Campbell and new signing Steven Fletcher City have lots of attacking options.

A sign of a club that’s on the right path is also the evidence of attention to detail off-pitch.  The clubs “red and white season ticket” which sees fans pay for half the season’s fixtures (by choice, the red half or the white half) and streaming of the other half is innovative, giving supporters the much missed ability to plan their lives around (at least some) football as and when.

Play-offs minimum, you’d have thought.

SWANSEA CITY

INS: Jamal Lowe (Wigan Athletic, Undisclosed); Korey Smith (Bristol City, Free), Morgan Gibbs-White (Wolverhampton Wanderers, Season Loan); Marc Guehi (Chelsea, Season Loan); Freddie Woodman (Newcastle United, Season Loan)

OUTS: Kees de Boer (ADO Den Haag, Free); Erwin Mulder (Heerenveen, Free); Courtney Baker-Richardson; Jefferson Montero; Brandon Cooper (Newport County, Season Loan); Jack Evans (Paphos, Season Loan)

OUR EX-SWANS: Ben Wilmot

THEIR EX-ORNS: George Byers, Andy Scott (Head of Recruitment); Julian Winter (Chief Executive)

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Woodman
Cabango         Rodon           Guehi
Roberts               Grimes         Smith               Bidwell
Gibbs-White
Lowe           Ayew

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: Swansea fall into a similar box to Brighton for me…  decent club, well-run, good place to visit, happy if they do well as long as they don’t do anything uncivil like beating us.

Having crashed into the play-offs last season you’d expect something similar again I think, “there or thereabouts”.  The crown jewels – centre back Joe Rodon, right back Connor Roberts are still there for the moment, good experience in the likes of Ayew and Wayne Routledge (yes, really) and some decent loans, particularly Wolves’ highly-rated Morgan Gibbs-White.

The financial realities of being in the final year of parachute payments are beginning to bite however, and there’s a general distrust of the club’s American owners.  This underlying anxiety rose to new levels last week with the departure of experienced, popular and transformative chairman Trevor Birch to a senior role at Spurs.  His replacement is a former Watford face Julian Winter, who Swans fans ought to trust to do a decent job.  One of his first decisions might be to respond to any offer from our direction for skipper Matt Grimes, widely touted as a replacement for Doucs.  The club’s anticipated handling of any such approach seems to being a barometer of the ambition of those American owners which is revealing in itself.  There’s none of the “don’t be ridiculous” stuff that you’d expect if such a move was out of the question.

The Swans were terrible by all accounts with a fairly strong side in losing at Newport in the League Cup at the weekend.  They are expected to be chasing a striker and a centre-back, perhaps related to the losses of loanees Rhian Brewster and Ben Wilmot, and their squad isn’t the deepest.  No worse than mid-table, and a play-off shout with a prevailing wind.

WYCOMBE WANDERERS

INS: Daryl Horgan (Hibernian, Undisclosed); Uche Ikpeazu (Hearts, Undisclosed); Jason McCarthy (Millwall, Undisclosed); Curtis Anderson (Manchester City, Free); Giles Phillips (Queens Park Rangers, Free); David Stockdale (Birmingham City, Free); Ryan Tafazolli (Hull City, Free)

OUTS: Sido Jombati (Oldham Athletic, Free); Jamie Mascoll (Bolton Wanderers, Free); Jacob Gardiner-Smith; Craig Mackail-Smith

OUR EX-CHAIRBOYS: None

THEIR EX-ORNS: Uche Ikpeazu

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Allsop
Grimmer              Stewart             Charles         Jacobson
Horgan              Pattison       Wheeler       Gape        Onyedinma
Ikpeazu

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: As I may have mentioned, my day-job is as a statistician.  Understanding and quantifying uncertainty, really.  Specifically…  do these results prove that I’ve improved the properties of this product?  Or might I have just got lucky.  For example.

Doing this job for 25 years tends to steer you away from absolute statements.  If there’s a fence, I’ll sit on it.  If there’s a caveat, I’m all over it.

The relevance here is that Wycombe Wanderers are in their first season at this level.  Indeed, since consecutive promotions out of the Conference and into the third tier in the early nineties they’ve not troubled the top end of the table since finishing 6th in that first season, despite spending more seasons in the third tier than the fourth.

So they’ll be high on everyone’s lists of teams to get relegated.  A small club, a small budget, punching above their weight, overreaching?  And such is a possible eventuality, sure.  But definitely and probably aren’t the same thing.  There’s a margin of error around any prediction this season of all seasons, and Wanderers have a shout.  For one thing you can guarantee at least a couple of basket cases in this division, Wednesday look early candidates (but only probably…) and a well-run small club unhampered by expectation ought to be fancied over a flailing one with loftier ambitions.

Then there’s Gareth Ainsworth, who has enough personality to fill an olympic swimming pool.  Any side managed by him and with Akinfenwa in the dressing room isn’t going to be short of personality, one suspects.  The football will be quite direct, the threat from set pieces and the wings.  Wycombe will probably struggle.

But only probably.

WATFORD

INS: Stipe Perica (Udinese, Undisclosed); Francisco Sierralta (Udinese, Undisclosed); Jeremy Ngakia (West Ham United, Compensation to be agreed); Glenn Murray (Brighton & Hove Albion, Season Loan)

OUTS: Abdoulaye Doucouré (Everton, £20,000,000); Dmitri Foulquier (Granada, £1,800,000); Lewis Gordon (Brentford, Free); José Holebas (Olympiacos, Free), Callum Whelan (Oldham Athletic, Free); Heurelho Gomes; Ryan Cassidy (Accrington Stanley, Season Loan); Cucho Hernández (Getafe, Season Loan)

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Foster
Cathcart            Kabasele             Wilmot
Ngakia                    Hughes                 Cleverley             Estupiñán
Quina                                Sema
Suárez

VERDICT: And here’s where the veil is removed from the foolishness of the 23 bits of flannel that preceded this one.  Because, predicting what’s to come,?Who the hell knows, frankly.  And if I can’t make a call on the team that I, you, we spend half our lives ruminating about, what sort of insight is half an hour digging around for info on Rotherham likely to reveal?

The Spurs win was tremendous, obviously.  But as was emphasised in the report on these pages, it’s impossible to know which of the 18 (eighteen, Teleprinter fans) missing senior players will be back in the fold in the longer term.  Except Doucs, obviously, so that’s one fewer degree of freedom.  Good, ish.  I suppose.

Who do we know is staying?  Strictly speaking nobody, but I’d be willing to venture that the new signings, Bens Wilmot and Foster, Cleverley, Dom Quina are as nailed on as it gets.  Frankly the prospect of a side with the two wing-backs, Quina, Wilmot in it with Ben Foster behind, even if it ends up being you, me, your Mum, Harry the Hornet, one of the guys from Fry Days and a bollard filling the starting eleven, is unspeakably exciting.  Energy.  Drive.  Wanting it.  Bring it on.

Even our relegation no longer upsets me quite as much as it did.  I mean, that’s a lie, obviously…  the relegation was a miserable, pathetic, avoidable disaster.  But being in the Championship isn’t, or wouldn’t be if things were “normal” and we could revisit old haunts and gorge ourselves on midweek games (remember those?).

Which isn’t to presume that we’ll be successful.  “Ripping the division a new one” is a possible outcome, but only one possible outcome and certain much less enjoyable outcomes are also plausible.  Vladimir Ivić has got a job on to mould a cohesive unit amidst this chaos, more even that Gianfranco Zola did eight (yes, really) years ago in the midst of the major overhaul as the Pozzos moved in.  Now as then it might take a bit of time, even if everyone is in a bit of a state of flux after the briefest of summer breaks and given the current financial uncertainty.

But at the moment, at the very least, it looks like a load of fun.  And heaven knows we all need a bit of that.

Bring it on.   Yooorns.

Season Preview 2020 – Part 5 10/09/2020

QUEENS PARK RANGERS

INS: Lyndon Dykes (Livingston, £2,000,000); Luke Amos (Tottenham Hotspur, Undisclosed); Rob Dickie (Oxford United, Undisclosed); Tom Carroll (Unattached, Free); George Thomas (Leicester City, Free)

OUTS: Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace, £19,500,000); Grant Hall (Middlesbrough, Free); Toni Leistner (SV Hamburg, Free); Giles Phillips (Wycombe Wanderers, Free); Marc Pugh; Dillon Barnes (Hibernian, Season Loan)

OUR EX-RS: None

THEIR EX-ORNS: John Eustace (Assistant Manager), Les Ferdinand (Director of Football), Paul Furlong (U18s head coach), Mark Warburton (Manager)

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Lumley
Kakay                Dickie                 Barbet             Manning
Osayi-Samuel      Carroll   Cameron       Amos           Chair
Dykes

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: Rangers were relegated into the division as we left it five years ago, and have largely spent the interim in our old haunt of lower mid-table.  This last season’s thirteenth placed finish was a relative high, with expectations dramatically reined in since they were yoyoing in and out of the top flight five to ten years ago.

There’s a strong Watford presence in the management team, John Eustace had been managing Kidderminster but joined the Rs with Steve McClaren two years ago only to outlast McClaren and retain his position under Mark Warburton’s stewardship.    I suspect I’m not the only one who’d be quite happy to see Eustace back at the Vic at some point.

The team itself is unashamedly attacking and flamboyant, but has a habit of being exposed by full-backs – not least the attack minded Manning, who we were linked with earlier in the year – pushing up and being caught behind.  The goals against column has been pretty horrific, with the absence of a reliable midfield grafter cited as a major issue, American Geoff Cameron now being 35 and beyond doing such charging around twice a week.

The sale of Eberechi Eze was a significant development over the summer;  by all accounts one of the most talented players in the Championship last season Eze had been released by Millwall four years ago; his sale represents a success story, the sort of model that the club – who appear well-run now in contrast to previous eras – are desperate to emulate.  The likes of Bright Osayi-Samuel and Illias Chair are candidates to be the next cab off the rank, but Rangers have a job on first off of replicating the approach that has just about seen them score enough goals to counterbalance the goals against column and keep them in the division in Eze’s absence.  A lightweight side has been given a bit of aggro with the signing of Australian born Lyndon Dykes, newly capped by Scotland in the weekend’s internationals, who will need to be a success one suspects if Rangers are to avoid a relegation battle.  A 3-2 League Cup defeat to Plymouth might have been welcome in relaxing a frantic September schedule, but hasn’t allayed supporters’ concerns about that defence.

READING

INS: Ovie Ejaria (Liverpool, Undisclosed); Josh Laurent (Shrewsbury Town, Free)

OUTS: Mo Barrow (Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors, Undisclosed); Tyler Blackett (Nottingham Forest, Free); Tyler Frost (Crawley Town, Free); Danny Loader (Porto, Free); Akin Odimayo (Swindon Town, Free); Charlie Adam; Chris Gunter; Vito Mannone, Garath McCleary; Jordan Obita; Adrian Popa

OUR EX-ROYALS: Nathaniel Chalobah, Adrian Mariappa, Graham Stack

THEIR EX-ORNS: Andy Yiadom

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Rafael
Yiadom                     Morrison                 Moore             Richards
Swift             Ridomhota         Ejaria
Méïté                     João                   Pușcaș

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: Reading are just there.

There’s no problem with that.  There have been plenty of times in very recent history when the same has applied to us, depending on your perspective, both in this division and in the Premier League, when being just there has suited us fine thank you very much.  Nonetheless, Reading are just there.

Since we parted ways five years ago the Royals are onto their seventh permanent manager (that’s more or less the same as us, depending on how many times / whether you count Slav and Quique) and have also come under Chinese ownership.  When we visited in the League Cup two years ago – and whilst conceding that nowhere looks its best in the early stages of the League Cup – the place felt… neglected.  Crumbling.  A little unloved, though surely not by its patrons.  The latest managerial change saw Mark Bowen, having dragged the Berkshire side into mid-table, encouraged to take a seat upstairs to accommodate Veljko Paunović, a Serb who had been managing in the MLS.  Bowen declined, and there’s a wearied, unconvinced sound to the messageboards.

The Royals had finished third the season before the summer takeover.  Since then they’ve twice finished narrowly clear of the relegation places and if last season was slightly more comfortable there’s no great optimism here.  The first team has some decent players – Ivorian Yakou Méïté managed 17 goals last season – but the squad depth isn’t great.  Mid-table at best, but you wouldn’t bet against a tighter scrap with relegation.  Being just there in this climate isn’t a very healthy thing to be.

ROTHERHAM UNITED

INS: Wes Harding (Birmingham City, Undisclosed); Viktor Johansson (Leicester City, Free); Angus MacDonald (Hull City, Free); Mickel Miller (Hamilton Academical, Free); Kieran Sadlier (Doncaster Rovers, Free); Jamal Blackman (Chelsea, Season Loan)

OUTS: Jerry Yates (Blackpool, Undisclosed); Laurence Bilboe; Julien Lamy

OUR EX-MILLERS: None

THEIR EX-ORNS: Rob Scott (Head of Talent ID), Adam Thompson

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Blackman
Olusunde         Ihiekwe          Wood            Mattock
Ogbene         MacDonald        Lindsay                    Sadlier
Ladapo               Smith

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: The Millers had come off the back of successive promotions when we played them in the promotion season, Slav memorably fielding four centre-backs across the back line to counterattack the visitors’ aerial threat at Vicarage Road.

After spending three consecutive seasons in the second tier for only the second time since the 1960s, Paul Warne’s side have bounced between tiers two and three for the past four seasons, culminating in last season’s promotion as the lockdown ground League One to a halt.

All the signs are that it will be a struggle to avoid that run being extended;  escaping relegation is the height of the messageboards’ ambitions.  They’re far from a basket case;  the likeable Warne, his assistant Shaun Barker and goalkeeping coach Andy Warrington are all former Millers players, the squad had enough about it to get promoted but the attack looks a little blunt and goalkeeper Jamal Blackman, now 26, has made an anxious start to his ninth loan exile from Chelsea.  Saturday’s defeat at Salford City was the side’s first competitive football in around six months and if the 1-1 full time score before penalties decided the issue flattered City, United nonetheless managed to lose the game.  Relegation candidates, but good enough to take advantage of concerted rubbishness elsewhere.

SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY

INS: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru (Manchester City, Undisclosed); Josh Windass (Wigan Athletic, Undisclosed); Chey Dunkley (Wigan Athletic, Undisclosed); Elias Kachunga (Huddersfield Town, Free); Izzy Brown (Chelsea, Season Loan)

OUTS: Steven Fletcher (Stoke City, Free); Fernando Forestieri (Udinese, Free); Morgan Fox (Stoke City, Free); Connor Kirby (Harrogate, Free); Sam Hutchison; Kieran Lee; Atdhe Nuhiu; Fraser Preston; Jack Stobbs; Sam Winnall

OUR EX-OWLS: None

THEIR EX-ORNS: None

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Wildsmith
Iorfa                     Lees                 Borner
Odubajo      Luongo             Brown            Bannan        Harris
Kachunga           Windass

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: Having made a couple of stout play-off challenges in the two years after our promotion, with varying levels of help from a wide range of ex-Hornets.  Since then the wheels have fallen off somewhat with a series of unconvincing mid-table finishes.

The most dramatic recent development is a twelve point penalty, imposed for breaching profitability and sustainability rules with regard to the sale of their stadium in respect to their accounts.  Controversial both in regard of the penalty itself, but also the timing…  as anyone with an interest or a Wednesday-supporting mate will know this thing dragged on and on last season and throughout lockdown until it became pretty transparent that imposing a penalty for this coming season rather than effectively relegating the Owls last season carried far less risk of litigation;  Charlton, the wounded party as it turned out, briefly considered legal action and then gave up on the idea.

Nonetheless this leaves the Owls on a sticky wicket this season (cricketing analogy there, sports fans…).  Ignoring Wigan’s points deduction they finished seven points clear of the drop last time round and so a twelve point penalty isn’t necessarily game over.  However that seven point buffer was achieved with the help of a large number of experienced players that have since moved on…  Fletcher and Fox, two of the stronger players in last season’s side, have joined Stoke, Sam Hutchinson is speaking to us by all accounts and Fessi was too before joining Udinese having become the last of the ex-Hornets to exit Hillsborough.  Wednesday are left with a very young squad and precious little up front, although their recruitment has been better than I’d have expected in the circumstances – Tom Dele-Bashiru’s kid brother the standout name.

The psychological burden of that penalty will be a factor as well.  Every poor run, of which there will surely be some, will induce that little bit of panic as the chasm opens slightly wider.  Wednesday need a siege mentality and a good start, something that we will have a say in one way or another on our first Championship away trip next weekend.  Strong relegation candidates, obviously.

Season Preview 2020 – Part 4 09/09/2020

MILLWALL

INS: Mason Bennett (Derby County, Undisclosed); Scott Malone (Derby County, Season Loan); Troy Parrott (Tottenham Hotspur, Season Loan); Ryan Woods (Stoke City, Season Loan)

OUTS: Jason McCarthy (Wycombe Wanderers, Undisclosed); Aiden O’Brien (Sunderland, Free)

OUR EX-LIONS: Graham Stack

THEIR EX-ORNS: Terry Bullivant (Chief Scout)

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Bialkowski
Hutchinson            Pearce              Cooper
Romeo                Woods         Williams              M.Wallace
J.Wallace                 Smith                    Bennett

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: The Lions were relegated from this division the year we went up;  it took them two years to get back up via the play-offs and since then two eighth-placed finishes have sandwiched a struggle with relegation in 2018/19.  Gary Rowett took over as boss when local hero Neil Harris resigned in October last year;  the Lions were 18th at the time, but Rowett propelled the side upwards to finish within two points of the play-offs in a congested upper mid-table.

In as far as it’s possible to judge with the most vibrant Millwall forum – which informed my first preview for BSaD 23 years ago – now barricaded to new entrants and nothing beyond factual comment in the web coverage, you’d stick the Lions in a similar place this time.  The squad looks relatively solid, there’s been some sensible strengthening over the summer.  Rowett is a sound enough manager, and in Troy Parrott the Lions have a handy looking loan signing to supplement a forward line with plenty about it.  Not nailed on for the play-offs, but a solid top half at worst.

NORWICH CITY

INS: Jordan Hugill (West Ham United, £5,000,000); Przemysław Płacheta (Slask Wroclaw, £2,700,000); Kieran Dowell (Everton, Undisclosed); Bali Mumba (Sunderland, Undisclosed); Jacob Sørensen (Esbjerg, Undisclosed); Matthew Dennis (Arsenal, Free); Daniel Sinani (F91 Dudelange, Free); Sebastian Sono (Hannover 96, Free); Ben Gibson (Burnley, Season Loan); Xavi Quintilla (Villarreal, Season Loan); Oliver Skipp (Tottenham Hotspur, Season Loan)

OUTS: Jamal Lewis (Newcastle United, £13,500,000); Mason Bloomfield (Hartlepool United, Free); Billy Johnson (Stevenage, Free); Diallang Jaiyesimi (Swindon Town, Free); Sean Raggett (Portsmouth, Free); Tom Scully (Accrigton Stanley, Free); Rocky Bushiri (KV Mechelen, Season Loan); Carlton Morris (Franchise FC, Season Loan); Louis Thompson (Franchise FC, Season Loan); Isak Thorvaldsson (St Mirren, Season Loan)

OUR EX-CANARIES: None

THEIR EX-ORNS: None

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Krul
Aarons        Gibson         Godfrey          Quintilla
Sørensen       Skipp
Buendia               Cantwell             Płacheta
Pukki

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: So.  City get promoted having ripped the Championship to bits.  Then spend the bare minimum in the transfer market, a bold/foolish decision to do a long term build, to all but sacrifice last season in the name of a steady improvement of the squad and facilities, all eyes on a more sustainable pitch at it the next time around.  They attracted a remarkable amount of praise on the opening day of last season when Liverpool were able to score four first-half goals without doing very much before City put some passes together and got a goal back after the break.  An irrelevant goal,  the lack of defensive shape, albeit against the team that would win the League, screamed warnings about their season.  So it proved;  there were brief sparks of life before the lockdown but the empty stadiums robbed City of what advantage there might have been in a relatively friendly looking run-in.  They went down with barely a whimper.  Now, though, the theory would go, is when they get the payback.  When they’re well set up to go again.

I think you’d be daft to bet against it.  Those preserved monies have been spent well on an impressive range of temporary and permanent signings, and whilst doubt remains as to where the likes of Lewis (sale to Newcastle confirmed last night…), Aarons, Godfrey, Cantwell and Buendía will spend this season the Canaries seem to have succession plans in place and will profit still further if they realise their young assets.

Coming off the back of a relegation season is never completely straightforward… City have lost a lot of games over the last twelve months but the stiffening of the midfield in front of the back four is critical and the influx of new players will provide impetus.  Wide margins of error on any prediction this of all seasons of course, but the Canaries have to be strong candidates for automatic promotion.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST

INS: Faouad Bachirou (Malmö, Undisclosed); Miguel Angel Guerrero (Olympiacos, Undisclosed); Tyler Blackett (Reading, Free); Jack Colback (Newcastle United, Free); Lyle Taylor (Charlton Athletic, Free); Luke Freeman (Sheffield United, Season Loan)

OUTS: Matty Cash (Aston Villa, £16,000,000); Tyler Walker (Coventry City, Undisclosed); Liam Bridcutt (Lincoln City, Free); Costel Pantilimon (Denizlispor, Free); Marcus McGuane (Oxford United, Season Loan); Danny Preston (Grimsby Town, Season Loan)

OUR EX-FOREST: Nathaniel Chalobah

THEIR EX-ORNS: Ben Watson

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Samba
Darikwa         Worrall        Dawson          Ribeiro
Sow                Colback            Freeman
Lolley                       Grabban                    Ameobi

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: Since our relegation Forest spent three year fumbling around at the wrong end of the division, but in the last two years have been at the business end of the table culminating in a crushing slip out of the play-off positions at the last minute last season.

Since last summer the man at the helm has been Sabri Lamouchi, a one-time French international midfielder who almost made the cut for the 1998 World Cup winning squad, and on at least one occasion last season was linked with the Watford vacancy.  Following last season’s disappointment Forest have strengthened in midfield in particular and are another side who ought to be challenging.  Whether there’s quite enough for automatic is open to question – there’s not overwhelming confidence on the Forest messageboards – but the midlands side are well stocked in most positions.  Play-offs minimum you’d have thought.

PRESTON NORTH END

INS: None

OUTS: Jack Armer (Carlisle United, Free); Tom Clarke (Salford, Free); Michael Crowe (Viking FK, Free); Connor Simpson (Cork City, Free); Josh Ginnelly (Hearts, Season Loan)

OUR EX-LILYWHITES: Danny Welbeck

THEIR EX-ORNS: None

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Rudd
Fisher               Bauer                 Davies             Hughes
Pearson             Ledson
Barkhuizen               Johnson                       Sinclair
Maguire

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: Preston were promoted to the Championship after a four year absence the same year that we went up, and have since established themselves in upper mid-table.  We’ve not played them in the League for almost a decade, and so the side itself isn’t familiar.   There are a few well-known faces…  former Swansea and Celtic winger Scott Sinclair, the hugely experienced Paul Gallagher and David Nugent who is guaranteed to trundle off the bench and score against us again if he’s still at Deepdale by the end of November.  Alex Neil, the boss, is also a familiar adversary having been in charge of the Norwich side that came up with us.

It would be wrong to dismiss the unfamiliar names as filler though, since in the likes of Daniel Johnson, Ben Pearson, Ben Davies and Darnell Fisher North End have players coveted by other clubs.  They fall squarely into the bucket labelled “no mugs”, and were praised pre-season by Chris Wilder after a competitive friendly draw with Sheffield United.  They’re not the best resourced club in the Championship and have a number of valued players precariously close to the end of their contracts which could upset the dressing room if agitation starts early.  Otherwise, have a good shout of the play-offs.

Season Preview 2020 – Part 3 08/09/2020

DERBY COUNTY

INS: David Marshall (Wigan Athletic, Undisclosed); Mike te Wierik (Groningen, Free); Matt Clarke (Brighton & Hove Albion, Season Loan)

OUTS: Max Lowe & Jadon Bogle (Sheffield United, £11,000,000 joint); Mason Bennett (Millwall, Undisclosed); Chris Martin (Bristol City, Free); Ikechi Anya; Tom Huddlestone; Scott Malone (Millwall, Season Loan); Jonathan Mitchell (Northampton Town, Season Loan)

OUR EX-RAMS: Will Hughes

THEIR EX-ORNS: Craig Forsyth

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Marshall
te Wierik      Bielik       Clarke
McDonald     Bird             Lawrence      Shinnie       Buchanan
Sibley          Waghorn

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: Since our promotion Derby have managed three play-off finishes in five seasons, reaching the final two years ago under the guidance of Frank Lampard with a couple of his future Chelsea charges on loan.  Last year, under the no less illustrious guidance of Philippe Cocu and player-coach Wayne Rooney, the Rams slipped back into mid-table with the threat of an (ultimately unrealised) Sheffield Wednesday-style points deduction hanging over their heads throughout.

As ever it’s difficult to make judgements with a lot of the transfer window to go (let alone having been a bit distracted for the last five years…) but County’s side looks solid but stodgy to me.  A lack of pace all round, despite the promise of youngster Sibley playing behind the forward, and a lack of depth in attacking positions in particular.  Derby aren’t flush for cash and so won’t be spending big between now and the end of the season;  any half-decent team has a shout of the play-offs in this division, but that’s the best they’ve got, a shout.  Unobtrusively mid-table seems more likely.

HUDDERSFIELD TOWN

INS: Danny Ward (Cardiff City, Free); Joel Pereira (Manchester United, Season Loan)

OUTS: Herbert Bockhorn (VfL Bochum, Free); Joel Coleman (Fleetwood Town, Free); Jan Gorenc-Stanković (Sturm Graz, Free); Elias Kachunga (Sheffield Wednesday, Free); Rekeil Pyke (Shrewsbury Town, Free); Collin Quaner; Danny Simpson; Reece Brown (Peterborough United, Season Loan); Scott High (Shrewsbury Town, Season Loan)

OUR EX-TERRIERS: None

THEIR EX-ORNS: Leigh Bromby (Head of First Team Operations), Jonathan Hogg

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Pereira
Hadergjonaj       Schindler        Kongolo            Toffolo
Bacuna             Hogg         O’Brien
Grant                     Ward               Mbenza

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: The Terriers were promoted to the Premier League against all expectation three years ago.  After defying expectations by staying up in their first top flight campaign the wheels came off in the second and they were relegated, following up by struggling badly in the Championship last year.

In that time boss David Wagner has moved on and both Jan Siewert and Danny Cowley have been and gone.  The new incumbent is Spaniard Carlos Corberán, a former goalkeeper who has been managing Leeds’ U23s.  He inherits a side that has been losing far more games than it’s been winning for three seasons now, which is heavily reliant for goals on Karlan Grant, subject of approaches by West Brom according to reports, that is low on cover having lost a large proportion of last season’s senior squad over the summer and low on funds, loans having been repaid to former chairman Dean Hoyle leaving Town with ostensibly little to show for their Premier League escapade.

It’s difficult to see anything but a difficult season ahead.  Relegation candidates.

LUTON TOWN

INS: James Bree (Aston Villa, Undisclosed); Tom Lockyer (Charlton Athletic, Undisclosed); Rhys Norrington-Davies (Sheffield United, Season Loan); Jordan Clark (Accrington Stanley, Free)

OUTS: Donervon Daniels (Crewe Alexandra, Free); Jake Jervis (SJK, Free); Frankie Musonda (Raith Rovers, Free); Marek Stech (Mansfield Town, Free); Donervon Daniels (Crewe Alexandra, Free); Lloyd Jones

OUR EX-HATTERS: Andre Gray

THEIR EX-ORNS: None

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Sluga
Bree                Lockyer                 Bradley          Galloway
Rea         Berry          Mpanzu             Lee
Collins             Cornick

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: No, it’s not bloody exciting.  And yes, maybe I am getting old and grumpy but I could really have done without this.  If there’s a joy to be had in having local rivals it’s surely best realised by looking down a division or two.  It was very nearly two again, of course, but that’s not how things turned out and so here we are.  As I say, maybe I’m getting old…  but the bile and hatred of the worst of the (most) recent encounters I can do without.

Anyway.  The Hatters left it late but managed to preserve their second tier status with a little to spare in the end, if abetted by the bizarre goings on at Wigan.  Nathan Jones is back in charge after an unsuccessful secondment at Stoke and managed four wins in nine after the restart but doesn’t seem to have the full confidence of the Luton support judging from messageboard verdicts.  Ambitions don’t stretch much higher than lower mid-table, staying up would seem to do for most, but having made some crowd-pleasing defensive signings over the break they should at least be hard to beat.  Particularly, one suspects, on September 26th.

MIDDLESBROUGH

INS: Grant Hall (Queens Park Rangers, Free)

OUTS: Adam Clayton (Birmingham City, Free); George Friend (Birmingham City, Free); Daniel Ayala; Rudy Gestede; Ryan Shotton

OUR EX-BORO: Nathaniel Chalobah

THEIR EX-ORNS: Britt Assombalonga

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Stojanovic
Dijksteel        Hall             Fry
Spence     Tavernier         Howson     Saville    Johnson
Assombalonga             Fletcher

BLUFFER’S GUIDE:  In the three years since relegation Boro’s fortunes have followed their parachute payments…. play-offs in 2018, narrowly missing out in seventh a year later and then coming horribly close to the drop last time out under Jonathan Woodgate before Neil Warnock arrived in typically understated fashion to haul yet another side away from trouble.

It looks a bit dicey again for Boro, who have lost an awful lot of experience over the close season with Warnock chuntering in the local press about players and agents with unreasonable expectations in the current climate as he struggles to bring players in.  No doubting that there’s an awful lot in that, but these are revealing comments and cast an angle on our own squad… both that we’re perhaps lucky to have so many assets desirable to the relatively limited number of clubs with actual money, and that those in our squad beneath that top tier might find that they’re not going to match the money of their current contracts and might actually stay put.

So Boro have some useful players and some decent kids coming through by all accounts but they’re short on numbers as it stands and will be vulnerable to a bad run of injuries.  Probably too much about them to struggle badly, but only probably.

Season Preview 2020 – Part 2 07/09/2020

BRENTFORD

INS: Ivan Toney (Peterborough United, £5,000,000 rising to £10,000,000); Charlie Goode (Northampton Town, Undisclosed); Lewis Gordon (Watford, Free)

OUTS: Dru Yearwood (New York Red Bulls, Undisclosed); Justin Shaibu; Julian Jeanvier (Kasımpaşa, Season Loan); Jaakko Oksanen (AFC Wimbledon, Season Loan); Luka Racic (Northampton Town, Season Loan)

OUR EX-BEES: Andre Gray

THEIR EX-ORNS: Lewis Gordon

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Raya
Dalsgaard     Jansson          Pinnock      Henry
Jensen             Da Silva          Nørgaard
Mbeumo                  Watkins                Benrahma

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: The Bees have been solidly mid-table since our departure from the Championship up until the season just gone.  They won their first seven straight after lockdown to propel themselves into automatic promotion contention but then lost their last two to Stoke and Barnsley to finish third, losing out in the play-off final to neighbours Fulham.

What the fallout is out of that lot is anyone’s guess.  They have a talented side built, it is reputed, off statistical analysis as much as conventional scouting (which ticks boxes for me…) but are likely to lose, in Ollie Watkins and Saïd Benrahma, two attacking jewels with further interest in the likes of left-back Rico Henry and keeper David Raya from top flight clubs.  Ivan Toney, who we and about a dozen other clubs were also linked with, has been brought in ostensibly to fill one of the gaps to be created in the forward line and the Bees have done a very fine job in recent years of buying low and selling high whilst making steady progress.  Quite how successful they are at doing this again in the wake of the briefest of pre-seasons in which to reshuffle the pieces and overcome the disappointment of yet another play-off defeat (their ninth failure of nine to navigate a promotion play-off), plus the move to a new stadium which could go either way (particularly whilst empty) in being a Good Thing or a Bad Thing as it affects their form and that of their visitors will determine whether they are contending for automatic promotion or another play-off tilt.

BRISTOL CITY

INS: Joe Williams (Wigan Athletic, Undisclosed); Chris Martin (Derby County, Free); Alfie Mawson (Fulham, Season Loan)

OUTS: Rory Holden (Walsall, Undisclosed); Korey Smith (Swansea City, Free); Matty Taylor (Oxford United, Free); Bailey Wright (Sunderland, Free); Robbie Cundy (Cambridge United, Season Loan); Owura Edwards (Grimsby Town, Season Loan); Saikou Janneh (Newport County, Season Loan); George Nurse (Walsall, Season Loan); Cameron Pring (Portsmouth, Season Loan); Jonny Smith (Swindon Town, Season Loan); Marley Watkins (Aberdeen, Half Season Loan)

OUR EX-ROBINS: None

THEIR EX-ORNS: Mark Ashton (CEO), Rene Gilmartin, Andi Weimann

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

O’Leary
Mawson        Kalas         Baker
Eliasson          Patterson     Morrell             Nagy         Dasilva
Diédhiou        Weimann

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: Three cup encounters in the interim, one of which going to replay, disguise the fact that we’ve not played City in the league since 2013.  They were promoted back to the Championship the year we went up, and have gradually settled into mid-table occasionally but not sustainably flirting with the play-offs, which they’ve not reached since losing to the Hull City side that had seen us off in the semis in 2008.

The Robins are another side under new management, Dean Holden being the erstwhile assistant to former Hornet Lee Johnson whose father, Gary, had also been a long-time manager at Ashton Gate.  The squad looks useful but imbalanced;  an apparent move to 3-5-2 ought to capitalise on City’s surfeit of midfielders and provide a little bit of robustness – a criticism of Johnson’s sides being that the defence was getting precious little protection.  City aren’t overburdened with central defenders however, and have strengthened this area with another mooted Watford target, Alfie Mawson, on loan from Fulham.

Elsewhere City have a number of decent forwards which will prove useful as the fixtures come thicker and faster than ever – although Player of the Season Famara Diédhiou is in the last year of his contract – but patched up their side with a number of loans last season and so will need to either repeat this trick or hope that injuries don’t take too much of a toll.   One of the large number of sides that could either trouble the play-offs or slip into trouble depending on which way the wind blows for them.

CARDIFF CITY

INS: Kieffer Moore (Wigan Athletic, £2,000,000); Jordi Osei-Tutu (Arsenal, Season Loan)

OUTS: Danny Ward (Huddersfield Town, Free); Omar Bogle; Matthew Connolly; Jazz Richards; Ciaron Brown (Livingston, Season Loan)

OUR EX-BLUEBIRDS: None

THEIR EX-ORNS: None

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Smithies
Osei-Tutu             Morrison                 Nelson                 Bennett
Murphy                   Tomlin                  Ralls                Hoilett
Moore         Glatzel

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: A year after relegation Neil Warnock may have moved on but his legacy remains both in the form of an aggressive forward line in particular – new signing Kiefer Moore supplements 6’4″ German striker Robert Glatzel and the abrasive Callum Patterson – and a number of unsuccessful signings perceived with retrospect as short-termist, leaving City with one of the oldest squads in the division.

Creativity is in short supply with the squad over-reliant on Lee Tomlin in central midfield and the squad’s possession stats amongst the lowest in the division.  Neil Harris’ side did make the play-offs and will remain stiff opposition, but they were closer to mid-table than to automatic promotion in points terms and the squad isn’t getting younger.  Can’t see them troubling the play-offs this time.

COVENTRY CITY

INS: Gustavo Hamer (PEC Zwolle, £1,400,000); Marcel Hilssner (SC Paderborn, Undisclosed); Tyler Walker (Nottingham Forest, Undisclosed); Julien Da Costa (Chamois Niort, Free); Callum O’Hare (Aston Villa, Free); Ryan Giles (Wolves, Season Loan); Leo Østigård (Brighton & Hove Albion, Season Loan); Ben Sheaf (Arsenal, Season Loan)

OUTS: Zain Westbrooke (Bristol Rovers, Undisclosed); Jack Hickman (Bolton Wanderers, Free); Callum Maycock (Solihull Moors, Free); Dexter Walters (Tamworth, Free); Reise Allassani; Bouwe Bosma; Junior Brown; Jordy Hiwula

OUR EX-SKY BLUES: None

THEIR EX-ORNS: Brandon Mason

REPORT ARCHIVE:

POSSIBLE STARTING ELEVEN:

Marosi
Dabo    Østigård      Hyam         Rose    Giles
Hamer                 O’Hare                    Kelly
Walker       Godden

BLUFFER’S GUIDE: Rare heady days for City, who have been promoted twice in three years having barely finished top half in whatever division they’ve been in since the eighties prior to that.  The Sky Blues may still be without a permanent base, playing “home” games at St Andrews this season, but they have a young, likeable side that hasn’t lost a game since before Christmas last year, going fourteen League games unbeaten before the League One season was curtailed in March and beating Franchise in their League Cup opener at the weekend.

That they’d not played a competitive game in almost six months prior to that will be a rare situation to start the season in, but with the further potential boost of a sell-on in Callum Wilson’s pending transfer things are as good for City as they’ve been for a while.  Unlikely to trouble the play-offs – those of us of a certain age will remember how hard it is to push on after promotions in quick succession – but won’t struggle either.